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Declining birth rates in Italy: -34% over 15 years

Italy is facing a critical situation marked by a continuous decline in birth rates. Despite being monitored for years, there has been no significant change in this trend, raising serious concerns about the future of the healthcare system and generational replacement. This is referred to as a true generational challenge, but it proves difficult to tackle. In the first six months of 2024, the decline compared to the same period in 2023 amounts to 4,600 children.

Continue reading to learn more about the trends in births in Italy.

A negative trend for nearly two decades

The -34% decline in births in 2023 compared to 2008 translates to approximately 197,000 fewer children born. Beyond the dramatic decrease over 15 years, there is also a worrying year-on-year decline. Compared to 2022, the drop was 3.6%, or about 14,000 births. Since 2008, the phenomenon of declining birth rates has been relentless: in 2008, there were 577,000 births—a number that seems to belong to a different era.

The year 2023 marked the eleventh consecutive historic low in births, with only 379,000 children born. To provide a clearer picture, it’s useful to consider the birth rate relative to the population. In 2022, the rate was 6.7 births per 1,000 inhabitants, which dropped to 6.4 in 2023.

In this critical context, however, a glimmer of hope emerges. While the total population continues to decrease due to lower birth rates, youth migration, and the economic crisis, the rate of decline is slowing. As of January 1, 2024, the resident population was 58,990,000, a decrease of 7,000 people compared to 2023 (approximately -0.1 per 1,000 inhabitants). Between 2014 and 2021, the average decline was more significant, with a reduction of -2.8 per 1,000 inhabitants.

Italy is among the European countries with the lowest birth rate

Total fertility rate (EU) | Credit

In 2022, only 3.88 million new citizens were born in Europe. The average fertility rate among member countries was 1.46 children per woman, a far cry from Italy’s current figures. The downward trend is common across all member states, except Bulgaria, which has seen an increase to 1.69 from 1.58 in 2019. Italy ranks at the bottom of the list, with a rate of 1.24 births per woman, alongside Spain (1.16) and Malta (1.08).

In this regard, Gigi De Palo, president of the Foundation for Birth, stated: “Young couples who wish to have children are abandoned. The government, despite having a dedicated ministry, seems to fail to understand that it’s not just about bonuses but rather a true fiscal shock that values rather than penalizes having a child. If this situation continues, we risk the collapse of GDP, healthcare, and social security.

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